Monday, October 29, 2012

RAND Predicts Massive Obama Win

The RAND Corporation is predicting that President Obama will easily win the upcoming presidential election.

Here is more on the poll:
The RAND Continuous 2012 Presidential Election Poll (CPEP) is conducted within the American Life Panel (ALP), which is an internet panel recruited through traditional probability sampling to ensure representativeness. The CPEP differs from other polls in that it asks the same respondents repeatedly about their voting preferences. Thus, it leads to more stable outcomes and changes are due to individuals' changing their minds and not due to random sampling fluctuations. The CPEP is also different because it asks respondents to state their preferences for a candidate and the likelihood that they will vote in probabilistic terms (percent chance), which has been shown to improve forecasts several months before the election. This documents gives a detailed account of the methodology underlying the CPEP.
Here is the full methodology of the poll.

Here is a look at RAND's funding sources for Fiscal Year 2011:


A list of RAND's clients and grantors can be found here.

RAND has been labeled as a "center-right" think tank.  More recently, it has been labeled as a "centrist" think tank.  Rand employees, however, overwhelmingly support Democrats.