Justin Wolfers and David Rothschild present a new model on voter intention that may predict election results better than traditional polls. In the 345 elections they analyze, the new model—based on voters' expectations—predicted the winner 81 percent of the time, compared with 69 percent for the standard polling question.The full paper can be found here.
Brookings will be one of among many think tanks to host post-election events. Brookings will also be hosting a live web chat on the results of the 2012 elections.
On a similar topic, Brookings scholar Darrell West has put together the top five campaign ads for President Obama and the top five for Gov. Mitt Romney.
American Enterprise Institute's (AEI) Michael Barone is predicting a Romney win for tomorrow. AEI will be hosting its own post-election event later this week.
As noted in this previous Think Tank Watch post, the RAND Corporation is predicting an Obama win.
