Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Will the Next Fed Chair Come From Think Tank Land?

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's term ends January 31, 2014, and there has been lots of speculation about who may be the next Chairman.  Those from think tank land who could possibly become the next Fed Chairman (and the probability that they will become the next Chairman) include:

  • Larry Summers: Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress, or CAP, and a Member of the Board of Directors at the Peterson Institute of International Economics, or PIIE (17% probability based on WPost prediction)
  • Tim Geithner: Distinguished Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, or CFR (8% probability based on WPost prediction)
  • Don Kohn: Senior Fellow, Economic Studies, at the Brookings Institution (5% probability based on WPost prediction)

Another big question: Will Ben Bernanke join a think tank?  It seems that former Federal Reserve officials (including visiting fellows and consultants) are scattered at various think tanks, including the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE; David Blanchflower, Joseph Gagnon, David Stockton), the Brookings Institution (Alice Rivlin, Don Kohn, Michael Klein), and American Enterprise Institute (AEI; Stephen Oliner, Phillip Swagel, Vincent Reinhart), to name a few.