Can RAND's New Model Predict Iran Outcome?

Here is more from The Economist:

 "As an uneasy truce holds between America and Iran, experts are struggling to predict what new phase the conflict may enter next.  Might an artificial intelligence model know any better?  To find out, The Economist asked RAND, a think tank, to see if its new AI forecasting system thought a popular uprising was in the offing in Iran.  Integrated Strategic Forecasting (ISF), as the system if known, put the chance of regime collapse or replacement by the end of 2026 at 20% - higher than many experts would hazard.

There are caveats.  The forecast was produced without classified intelligence.  Its inputs and outputs were also no vetted by humans, as is customary for forecasts commissioned by government agencies, notes Anthony Vassalo, RAND's head of prediction technology and a former senior official in America's Office of the Director of National Intelligence.  Even so, Mr. Vassalo is bullish.  He describes ISF, which was completed in February, as "the better crystal ball" policymakers have long sought.

 

Here is more about RAND's Forecasting Initiative (RFI), and here is one of their latest papers entitled "Aligning Forecasting Methods to Support Intelligence Community Analytic Tradecraft."

Coolest Think Tank Job in the World

The Cato Institute is now advertising for the coolest think tank job in the world.  The catch?  It doesn't exist yet.  Yes, you get to create your own think tank job.

Here is more from the Washington, DC-based think tank:

The newly launched Cato Innovation Project asks applicants to propose the job they want us to create for them, rather than seeking to fill predefined positions. This inverts the usual hiring process. The Project will select 2–3 applicants on a rolling basis for full-time positions at a minimum salary of $100,000 and full benefits to work for at least 2 years on their projects at Cato. The positions have the potential to become permanent. 

We evaluate the pitch, not just the résumé. The Cato Innovation Project is open to a deliberately wide range of applicants with different skills and interests. Aspiring policy researchers can propose covering new issue areas or established ones in different ways. Technologists and data scientists can pitch tools, platforms, analytical capabilities, or more that change how a think tank operates. Communications specialists, filmmakers, and media producers can design new ways to translate libertarian ideas into formats to reach audiences we currently miss. Organizers and coalition builders can propose external engagement strategies that connect Cato’s research to communities, legislators, or institutions in novel ways.  

 

You can apply here.  Think Tank Watch will closely track who is hired for these uniquely advertised positions.  Stay tuned.